Caderneta de poupança deve passar a render menos a partir de 7 de setembro

Os depósitos em poupança feitos a partir de maio de 2012 podem passar a ter rendimento menor a partir de 7 de setembro se a expectativa do mercado financeiro se confirmar e o Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom), do Banco Central, reduzir os juros abaixo de 8,5% em sua próxima reunião, na semana que vem.

Uma regra em vigor desde maio de 2012 prevê um corte nos rendimentos da poupança quando os juros básicos da economia, a chamada taxa Selic, caem abaixo de 8,5%. Nessa situação, a correção anual das cadernetas fica limitada a um percentual equivalente a 70% da Selic, mais a Taxa Referencial, calculada pelo BC. (veja mais abaixo neste texto).

Hoje, os juros básicos estão em 9,25% ao ano. A previsão do mercado financeiro é que o Copom mantenha o ritmo de corte de 1 ponto percentual das reuniões anteriores e baixe a Selic a 8,25% no próximo dia 6.

Se isso acontecer, a partir do dia 7 de setembro a regra de corte de rendimentos começaria a valer e a correção da poupança passaria a ser de 70% de 8,25%, o equivalente a 5,77%, mais Taxa Referencial.

O rendimento da poupança pode ficar ainda menor caso o Copom promova novos cortes na Selic nos próximos meses – analistas consultados pelo BC estimam que os juros básicos terminem 2017 em 7,25% ao ano.

A regra atinge apenas depósitos feitos em contas poupança a partir de 4 de maio de 2012. No fim do ano passado, dado mais recente, o país tinha mais de 148 milhões de contas poupança ativas, que concentravam R$ 658 bilhões. Em julho deste ano, o valor já havia subido para R$ 681 bilhões.

Copom reduz Selic para 9,25% ao ano (Foto: Arte/G1)Copom reduz Selic para 9,25% ao ano (Foto: Arte/G1)

Copom reduz Selic para 9,25% ao ano (Foto: Arte/G1)

Desde 1991, a poupança rende ao menos 0,5% ao mês (6,17% ao ano), mais a Taxa Referencial, com exceção de um período entre maio de 2012 e julho de 2013, quando os juros básicos da economia também ficaram abaixo de 8,5% ao ano.

Na avaliação do diretor executivo de Estudos e Pesquisas Econômicas da Associação Nacional de Executivos de Finanças, Administração e Contabilidade (Anefac), Miguel José Ribeiro de Oliveira, confirmada a queda da Selic abaixo de 8,5% ao ano, o rendimento da poupança deve ficar abaixo de 6% ao ano.

“Com a queda da Selic, o rendimento da TR, que também é considerada nos cálculos, vai ficar muito próximo de zero. Basicamente você vai ter lá [a poupança rendendo] 70% da Selic. Vai ficar abaixo de 6% ao ano”, disse ele.

Entretanto, Oliveira aponta que, mesmo com correção mais baixa, a poupança continuaria atrativa, especialmente quando comparada aos fundos cujas taxas de administração sejam superiores a 1% ao ano.

“Se não tivesse mexido na regra da poupança, você ia ver a poupança ganhando [dos fundos de renda fixa] em todas as situações e o governo teria dificuldade de financiar a dívida pública. Essa mudança reduz a rentabilidade da poupança, mas ela ainda se destaca”, declarou ele.

Outra vantagem da poupança é que a isenção de cobrança do Imposto de Renda. Nos fundos de investimento, ou até mesmo no Tesouro Direto, programa do governo de compra de títulos públicos pela internet, há cobrança do IR.

Por que a regra foi alterada em 2012?

A medida visa evitar que a poupança fique mais atrativa que os demais investimentos, cujos rendimentos caem junto com a Selic. Sem o redutor, a poupança passaria a atrair recursos de grandes poupadores, o que não é seu objetivo.

Se isso ocorresse, um dos prejudicados seria o próprio governo, que teria dificuldades para fazer a chamada “rolagem” da dívida pública, ou seja, a emissão de títulos públicos pelo Tesouro Nacional para pagar os papéis que estão vencendo.

Com rendimento maior, a poupança poderia atrair os recursos de grandes investidores, que deixariam de comprar os títulos públicos.

G1

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